內容簡介

基于對2015年中國股市危機的反思，2016年中國學術界和金融監管部門都在研究中國金融監管改革，探討基于未來中國金融結構和金融風險變化的新的監管模式。理論研究者、政策制定者和監管部門都意識到目前的“一行三會”的分業監管模式存在一些監管真空，難以覆蓋由于金融創新和金融結構變化所衍生出的新的金融風險，因而一般都認為要推動金融監管結構的改革。但對金融監管改革的內在邏輯缺乏系統、全面、深入的分析，也缺乏充分的數據支持。基于此，本研究報告沿著金融結構（金融資產結構）的調整→金融風險衍生和變異→金融監管模式改革這樣一條邏輯思路展開研究，同時深入分析不同階段金融監管規則調整的背景和動因，探討國際金融監管改革的新趨勢，尋找中國金融監管改革的新模式。

與過去歷年大多數研究報告體例一樣，本研究報告仍由導論、分論、市場研究三部分組成，其中，導論和分論是本研究報告的主體內容。導論部分主要側重于構建中國金融監管改革的理論分析邏輯，從金融結構、風險變異和金融模式選擇的邏輯角度，觀測、分析為什么必須推動中國的金融監管模式改革，并對中國金融監管新模式作了理論和功能上的勾畫。各分論則對中國金融監管模式的變遷、不同時期監管規則的調整、全球金融監管改革的新趨勢以及如何構建基于風險分級和風險變異的新的金融監管模式作了分析和闡釋。

由FSI主持、吳曉求教授領銜執筆的中國資本市場研究報告，實際上是一部問題導向、側重于理論分析的研究作品，對每年及下一年市場趨勢的預測和研究不是本研究報告關注的重點，所以，市場研究這部分內容實際上是本研究報告的輔助內容。市場研究主要從基本面和技術面角度，分析了2016年的市場特征和2017年所可能發生的變化。

Introduction

Based on the reflection of China's stock market crisis in 2015, Chinese academics and financial regulators in 2016 studied China's financial regulatory reform and explored new regulatory models based on future changes in China's financial structure and financial risks. Theoretical researchers, policymakers and regulators are aware that the current separate supervision model—“one central bank and three commissions”, which exists regulatory vacuum to some extent and is difficult to cover the new financial risks derived from financial innovations and financial structural changes. Therefore, it is generally agreed to promote the reform of financial regulatory structure. However, there is a lack not only of systematic, comprehensive and indepth analysis of the inherent logic of financial regulatory reform, but also of adequate data support. Based on this, the research report follows the logic of adjustment of the financial structure（financial asset structure）→financial risk derived and it's variation→financial regulation model reform. At the same time, it gives a deep analysis of the background and motivation of the adjustment of financial supervision rules at different stages, probes into the new trend of international financial supervision reform and looks for a new model of China's financial regulatory reform.

As with most of the research reports in the past years, this research report is composed of three parts:introduction, theses and market research. Among them, the introduction and theses are the main parts of this research report. The introduction part mainly focuses on the theoretical analysis and on the logic of China's financial supervision reform, observes and analyzes the necessity of promoting the reform of China's financial supervision mode from the perspective of financial structure, risk variation and financial model alternatives, and makes a theoretical and functional construction of the new model of China's financial supervision. The theses analyze and explain the changes of China's financial regulatory model, the adjustment of regulatory rules in different periods, the new trend of global financial supervision reform and how to construct a new financial supervision model based on risk classification and risk variation.

The research report of China's capital market, hosted by FSI and led by Professor Wu Xiaoqiu, is actually a problem-oriented research focused on theoretical analysis. The prediction and research on market trends for each year and next year are not the focus of this research report, thus the market research is actually the auxiliary part of this research report. Market research analyses the 2016 market characteristics and what changes may occur in 2017 from the perspective of fundamental and technical aspects.