總結

不同于大多數現實主義理論家用環境因素解釋大國的興衰，道義現實主義者將國家領導視為贏得大國競爭的關鍵因素。該理論認為，實行王道型領導以贏得國際支持是獲得國際領導地位的最重要方面，這比用物質實力贏得軍事競爭更為關鍵。王道型領導需要領導國在國內和國際上都踐行王道規范，正如貝淡寧所指出的，這與軟實力或文化實力不同，因為它是一種增強國家實力和國際穩定的政治領導力。[38]盡管該理論提出了一個美好的愿景，但本書的撰稿者普遍質疑它是否能夠在實踐中得以實現。

盡管本書的作者對道義在國際領導中的重要性沒有異議，但他們在道義的構成、如何評價道義以及與環境制約作用相比道義在多大程度上有重大影響等方面存在著分歧。盡管我承認美德是道義的一個重要因素，但我仍然認為將國際領導的道義視為責任而非美德會更為實際，因為不服從國際領導是無政府體系的主要特征。在本書中，關于道義性質的辯論揭示了現實主義與其他國際關系理論（如自由主義和建構主義）之間在認識論上的根本差異。目前，數字技術的進步伴隨著民主在全球的衰落，這一事實提醒我們，科學研究國際領導的結論會比規范認知更加符合殘酷的現實。

本書的目的不是就有關國際領導的理解達成共識，也不是為了尋找解決中美競爭領導地位的方案，而是為了激發讀者對相關議題的深入思考。在制度決定論仍然是最具影響力的思維方式的情況下，如果本書能夠促進更多人研究國際領導，那將是一個重大的成就。從經驗實證分析的角度來看，我希望這本書能引發更多關于領導的研究，不論是由中國政府還是由美國政府提供的領導，因為現如今兩國政府共同領導是不現實的。

注釋

[1] “WHO Director-General opening remarks at the Member State Briefing on the COVID-19 pandemic evaluation,” World Health Organization, July 9, 2020, https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-opening remarks-at-the-member-state-briefing-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-evaluation---9july-2020.

[2] Joseph S. Nye Jr, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, New York: Oxford University Press, 2020.

[3] Robert Jervis, “Do Leaders Matter and How Would We Know?” Security Studies 22, no. 2 (2013): 153.

[4] Jared M. Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1997.

[5] Charles P. Kindleberger, “Dominance and Leadership in the International Economy:Exploitation, Public Goods, and Free Rides,” International Studies Quarterly 25,no. 2 (1981): 242–54; Robert Gilpin, The Political Economy of International Relations, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987.

[6] Oran Yang, “Political Leadership and Regime Formation: On the Development of Institutions in International Society,” International Organization 45, no. 3(1991): 285. 轉引自陳志敏、周國榮：《國際領導與中國協進型領導角色的構建》，《世界經濟與政治》，2017年第3期，第18頁。

[7] Joseph S. Nye Jr, The Powers to Lead, New York: Oxford University Press, 2008,p. 19.

[8] G. John Ikenberry, “The Future of International Leadership,” Political Science Quarterly 111, no. 3 (1996): 385.

[9] Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics, London:Macmillan, 1977.

[10] David A. Lake, “Regional Hierarchy: Authority and Local International Order,” Review of International Studies 35 (2009): 35–39.

[11] 陳志敏、周國榮：《國際領導與中國協進型領導角色的構建》，第21頁。

[12] 俞沂暄：《超越霸權：國際關系中領導的性質及其觀念基礎》，《復旦國際關系評論》第27輯，上海：上海人民出版社，2020年版，第42頁。

[13] 常健、殷浩哲：《國際領導地位新更替周期研究》，《復旦國際關系評論》第27輯，上海：上海人民出版社，2020年版，第21—22頁。

[14] Oran Yang, “Political Leadership and Regime Formation: On the Development of Institutions in International Society”.

[15] G. John Ikenberry, “The Future of International Leadership”: 388–396.

[16] Joseph S. Nye Jr, The Powers to Lead, p. 21.

[17] Ole R. Holsti, “The Political Psychology of International Politics: More than a Luxury,”Political Psychology 10, no. 3 (1989): 497.

[18] 尹繼武：《心理與國際關系：個體心理分析的理論與實踐》，《歐洲研究》，2004年第1期，第69頁。

[19] Ruth P. Morgan, “Reviewed Work(s): The Presidential Character: Predicting Perfor mance in the White House by James David Barber,” The Journal of Politics 37, no. 1(1975): 305.

[20] Margaret G. Hermann, “Explaining Foreign Policy Behaviour Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders,” International Studies Quarterly 24, no. 1(1980): 7–46.

[21] James David Barber, “The Promise of Political Psychology,” Political Psychology 11, no. 1 (1990): 183.

[22] 尹繼武：《心理與國際關系：個體心理分析的理論與實踐》，第78—79頁。

[23] Peter G. Northouse, Leadership: Theory and Practice, 7th Edition, California:SAGE Publications, Inc, 2015.

[24] Yang Qianru, “An Examination of the Research Theory of Pre-Qin Interstate Political Philosophy,” in Yan Xuetong, Daniel A. Bell and Sun Zhe (eds), Edmund Ryden (trans), Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power, Princeton:Princeton University Press, 2011, p. 148.

[25] 閻學通：《世界權力的轉移：政治領導與戰略競爭》，北京：北京大學出版社，2015年版，第180—182頁。

[26] Yan Xuetong, Daniel A. Bell and Sun Zhe (eds), Edmund Ryden (trans), Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011.

[27] 張鋒是第一個使用這個詞的人。參見Feng Zhang, “The Tsinghua Approach and the Inception of Chinese Theories of International Relations,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 5, No. 1 (Spring 2012): 73–102.

[28] 鳳凰大學問：《閻學通對話米爾斯海默：中國能否和平崛起？》，清華大學國際關系研究院，2013年12月9日，http://www.tuiir.tsinghua.edu.cn/info/1091/4203.htm。

[29] Svetlana Krivokhizh and Elena Soboleva, “The Past Serving the Present: Yan Xuetong’s Theory of Moral Realism and the Future of the Global Order,” World Economy and International Relations 61, no.11 (2017): 76, https://www.imemo.ru/en/publications/periodical/meimo /archive/2017/11-t-61/china-domestic-and-foreign-policies/the-past-serving-the-present-yan-xuetongs-theory-of-moral-realism-and-the-future-of-the-global-order.

[30] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2019, p. 14.

[31] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, p. 29.

[32] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, p. 40.

[33] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, p. 35.

[34] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, p. 193.

[35] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, pp. 37—40.

[36] Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, Princeton: Princeton Univer sity Press, 2019, pp. 197—206.

[37] Kai He, “A Realist’s Ideal Pursuit,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 5,No.2 (Summer 2012): 183–97; Feng Zhang, “The Tsinghua Approach and the Inception of Chinese Theories of International Relations”; Mario Telò, “Building a Common Language in Pluralist International Relations Theories,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 13, no. 3 (Autumn 2020): 455–83.

[38] Daniel A. Bell, “Introduction,” in Yan Xuetong, Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power, pp. 1–18.