分類要素貢獻和中國經濟增長動力再檢驗^[1]

董直慶 劉備^[2]

摘要：當前中國經濟步入“新常態”，經濟結構性減速誘使我國可能存在步入“中等收入陷阱”的危險，有必要審視生產要素和結構貢獻及經濟增長效率問題。基于此，本文從不同維度考察我國經濟增長的動力機制，并以全要素生產率表征經濟增長效率，結合馬爾科夫區制轉移向量自回歸模型，測度不同區制下結構和體制因素的經濟效率動力機制。結果發現：生產要素始終是我國經濟增長的主要動力，不同維度經濟結構對經濟增長作用差異明顯，是政府而非市場主導經濟增長的特征明顯；不同時期、不同類型要素對經濟增長作用差異明顯，尤其是技術進步正向促進作用與市場化影響不斷顯現；不同層次的經濟系統顯示出雙區制特征，經濟維持在“低增長區制”與“高增長區制”的概率大致相同，而不同類型要素和結構對經濟增長效率影響也存在差別。這些結果表明，我國經濟增長存在周期性和階段性特征。

關鍵詞：生產要素 經濟結構 經濟制度 區制轉移

中圖分類號：F224.0 文獻標識碼：A

Category Factor Contribution and China's Economic Growth Power Retest

Dong Zhiqing Liu Bei

Abstract：At present，China's economy is entering the new normal，and the risk of entering the middle-income trap may exist when the economic structural slow down.Therefore，it is necessary to examine the factors and structural contribution and the efficiency of economic growth.Based on this，this paper investigates the dynamic mechanism of China's economic growth from different dimensions，and characterizes the efficiency of economic growth with the total factor productivity，and measures the economic efficiency dynamic mechanism of structure and institutional factors under different regional systems by combining the markov system transfer vector autoregressive model.The results showed：Factors of production have always been the main driving force of China's economic growth.Different economic structures have different effects on economic growth，and the government，rather than the market，has obvious characteristics of economic growth.The effects of different types of factors on economic growth in different periods are obviously different，especially the positive promoting effect of technological progress and the marketization effect.The economic system of the same level shows the characteristics of the two-region system.The probability of maintaining the economy in the “low growth region system” and “high growth region system” is roughly the same，while the influence of different types of elements and structures on the efficiency of economic is also different.These results indicate that China's economic growth has cyclical and phasic characteristics.

Keywords：Production Factors Economic Structure Economic System Regional System Transfer