融入全球價值鏈有利于實現貿易隱含碳減排嗎？^[1]

陶長琪 徐志琴^[2]

摘要：全球價值鏈分工為國際碳減排帶來了機遇和挑戰，當前文獻大多集中于全球價值鏈分工地位和隱含碳排放的測度問題，尚未對二者的影響機制進行研究。本文運用1995～2011年39個國家的數據，分別構建動態面板模型和面板門檻模型實證分析融入全球價值鏈對進出口隱含碳排放的直接影響，以及通過規模、結構、技術和環境規制四條傳導路徑對出口隱含碳排放的間接影響。結果表明，全球價值鏈分工地位和參與度對進出口隱含碳排放強度的作用方向截然相反，前者的負向作用明顯。此外，融入全球價值鏈對出口隱含碳排放的間接效應均存在雙重門檻。隨著全球價值鏈分工地位的提高，規模效應的促進作用越來越小，結構、技術和環境規制效應的減排作用也逐漸顯現。據此，建議一國鼓勵服務業積極參與全球價值鏈分工，實現“制造”向“智造”升級，進而通過全球價值鏈嵌入有效實現貿易隱含碳減排。

關鍵詞：全球價值鏈 貿易隱含碳排放 碳減排

中圖分類號：F113.3 文獻標識碼：A

Is Integrating Global Value Chains Conducive to Achieving CO₂ Mitigation in Foreign Trade？

Tao Changqi Xu Zhiqin

Abstract：GVC brings opportunities and challenges for carbon emission reduction.But the existing studies mostly focus on the measurement of GVC's position and the embodied carbon emissions，and lack of analysis of the impact mechanism between them.By using 39 countries panel data from 1995-2011，this paper establishes the dynamic panel model and threshold model to analyze the direct effect of integrating GVC on the embodied carbon emissions，and the indirect effect on the embodied carbon emissions in export through the scale，structure，technology and environmental regulation.The results show that，the GVC's position can reduce the embodied carbon emissions，but the GVC's participation not，and the negative effects of the former are obvious.Moreover，there is a double threshold for integrating the global value chain to the indirect effects of export embodied carbon emissions.With the increase of GVC's position，the scale effect is becoming smaller and smaller，and the effect of CO₂ mitigation of structure，technology and environmental regulation is also gradually emerging.Accordingly，it is suggested that a country should encourage the service sector to take an active part in GVC and realize the upgrading of “manufacturing” to “wisdom making”，and then to effectively achieve trade implied carbon emission reduction through embedding global value chains.

Keywords：GVC Embodied Carbon Emissions in Foreign Trade CO₂ Mitigation