摘要

現(xiàn)代財政理論認(rèn)為“財政政策”是包含財政目標(biāo)、工具與效果“三位一體”的有機系統(tǒng)，在現(xiàn)代市場經(jīng)濟及開放環(huán)境中，一國財政政策成為宏觀經(jīng)濟調(diào)節(jié)的主要手段之一，并因其作用機制特性在經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定與增長、結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、改善收入分配等方面發(fā)揮著重要作用。

2008—2009年國際金融危機以及2012 年世界經(jīng)濟的“二次探底”以來，發(fā)達國家深陷財政赤字泥潭，新興經(jīng)濟國家也在退出財政刺激后赤字率與負(fù)債率顯著上升，財政脆弱性明顯加大。墨西哥作為世界第十五大、拉美第二大經(jīng)濟體以及北美自由貿(mào)易區(qū)、經(jīng)合組織、二十國集團及太平洋聯(lián)盟等多個國際地區(qū)多邊組織成員國，繼2008年GDP增長率大幅度下跌0.6%、創(chuàng)拉美地區(qū)經(jīng)濟惡化程度之最，2010年又率先因巨大的財政缺口被迫退出逆周期的財政刺激計劃，近年受內(nèi)外因素沖擊，宏觀經(jīng)濟步步走低、財政可持續(xù)性風(fēng)險問題日益凸顯。2014 年涅托政府推出爭議已久的財政改革及能源改革計劃試圖破解“不充分的增長”難題，然而實際政策措施效果不佳。本書由此出發(fā)，旨在通過對墨西哥財政改革和發(fā)展，特別是20世紀(jì)80年代債務(wù)危機以后歷史的縱向梳理以及20余年來墨西哥實際財政質(zhì)量的橫向指標(biāo)和效應(yīng)分析，深入了解其歷史改革模式轉(zhuǎn)換動因與當(dāng)下改革的潛力、難點所在。

本書首先綜述了西方經(jīng)濟學(xué)理論與當(dāng)前主流政策分析框架，歸納出了理解財政政策模式的三組重要概念：國家與市場、效率與公平、需求與供給；以及評估財政政策效應(yīng)的三大視角：經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定、經(jīng)濟增長及改善收入分配。其次梳理了拉美國家財政理論與政策發(fā)展歷史，特別總結(jié)了20世紀(jì)80年代墨西哥轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式以來的財政政策特點。第三章通過對1994—2012年墨西哥財政政策工具四大指標(biāo)（財政收入、支出、財政平衡與公共債務(wù)）的量化分析，總結(jié)其財政模式改革中的邏輯與目標(biāo)轉(zhuǎn)變，存在的制約因素。最后通過1994—2014 年墨西哥財政政策的三大效應(yīng)分析，進一步分析財政政策制定中不同目標(biāo)的實際績效與協(xié)同特點。

通過分析，本書得出如下結(jié)論：

第一，墨西哥從20世紀(jì)80年代債務(wù)危機至1994 年完成徹底的新自由主義改革并爆發(fā)金融危機以后，為實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定付出了高昂的財政及社會成本。

第二，1994—2014年墨西哥實際財政政策選擇體現(xiàn)出鮮明的新古典主義財政框架特點，但“二代改革”推動結(jié)構(gòu)主義財政觀復(fù)蘇發(fā)展，墨西哥政府開始著眼于加強國家干預(yù)的長期財政調(diào)整，但受“石油依賴”、加入NAFTA后經(jīng)濟外部性上升以及國內(nèi)政治雙重因素影響，財政改革推進一再延誤。

第三，墨西哥實際稅收收入與財政支出表現(xiàn)出長期穩(wěn)定的“低水平”，盡管總體財政基本保持平衡、債務(wù)風(fēng)險穩(wěn)定，但稅收與支出總量和結(jié)構(gòu)、稅率在維護經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定、促進增長（短期與長期）與改善收入分配方面的實際效果和協(xié)同性上均表現(xiàn)不佳。

第四，當(dāng)前，墨西哥迫切需要推進更有效率的財政改革，推動經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)變革，促進生產(chǎn)效率提升，加強財政治理以應(yīng)對中長期世界經(jīng)濟不確定性上升的挑戰(zhàn)。

第五，經(jīng)濟具有高市場化、高開放度特點的墨西哥案例對新興經(jīng)濟體及中國的財政改革有所啟示，即在當(dāng)代開放經(jīng)濟中，一國公共財政治理能力事關(guān)經(jīng)濟與社會發(fā)展的全局，政府應(yīng)在其中發(fā)揮更為積極而非唯一的作用，而科學(xué)的財政工具運用是其提升財政治理能力的重要途徑。

關(guān)鍵詞：墨西哥；財政政策；經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定；經(jīng)濟增長；收入分配

Abstract

Modern fiscal theory holds that“fiscal policy”is a“trinitarian”organic system involving financial targets，tools and effects.In modern market economy and opening environment，fiscal policy becomes one of the major means for macro-economic adjustment of one country，and for its effect mechanism and characteristics，it plays an important role in the economic stability and growth，structural adjustment and improvement of income distribution.Since the global financial crisis during 2008-2009 and“double-dip”of world economy in 2012，developed countries have run deep deficit，and in emerging economies，the deficit ratio and debt ratio have increased significantly after exiting from fiscal stimulus，and their fiscal vulnerability is also raised dramatically.As the 15th economy in the world and the 2nd one in Latin America，and the member state of several multilateral international organizations including NAFTA，OECD，Group of Twenty and Pacific Alliance as well，Mexico’s macro-economy has declined step by step in recent years and its continuous financial risk issues have been increasingly emerging，after its GDP growth rate sharply dropped by 0.6% in 2008，becoming the worst economy in economic deterioration among Latin America，followed by firstly withdrawing from the countercyclical fiscal stimulus plan because of huge fiscal gap in 2010.In 2014，Nieto government introduced the fiscal reform and energy reform plan which has a controversial question for a long time，attempting to solve the puzzle of“inadequate growth”，and however，the effect of practical policy measures give a poor performance.On this basis，the article is aimed at the insight of conversion motivation of its historical reform pattern and potential and difficulties of the current reform.

Firstly，the article summarizes western economics theory and analytical framework of the current mainstream policy，and generalizes three groups of important concepts for understanding the fiscal policy mode：state and market，efficiency and equity，and demand and supply；and evaluates three perspectives of the fiscal policy effect：economic stability，economic growth and improvement of income distribution.Secondly，it makes clear the fiscal theory of Latin America and the history of policy development，especially summarizes the characteristics of fiscal policy since Mexico transformed its economic development mode in 1980s.In the third chapter，by the quantitative analysis on four indicators（fiscal revenue，expenditures，fiscal balance and public debt）of Mexican fiscal policy tool during 1994-2012，we summarizes the transformation of logic and target，and existing constraints during the reform of fiscal mode.Finally，by the analysis on three effects of Mexican fiscal policy during 1994-2014，we further analyzes the characteristics of actual performance and synergy of different targets during the formulation of fiscal policy.

Through analysis，the article draws the following conclusions：

Firstly，from the debt crisis of 1980s through to thorough completion of neoliberal reform and outbreak of financial crisis in 1994，Mexico paid out excessively high fiscal and social costs for realizing economic stability.

Secondly，during 1994 -2014，Mexico’s practical selection of fiscal policy embodied distinct characteristics of neoclassical fiscal framework，and however，the“Reform of the Second Generation”promoted the revival and development of structuralism fiscal outlook，and Mexico started to strengthen the long-term fiscal adjustment of state intervention，but due to the influence of“oil dependence”，rising of economic externality after joining NAFTA and domestic politics，the boost of fiscal reform was postponed again and again.

Thirdly，Mexico’s actual tax revenue and fiscal expenditure show up a secular stable“l(fā)ow level”，although the overall fiscal condition keeps equilibrium and debt risk stable，the actual effect and synergy of the structure and o-verall revenue and expenditure and the tax rate give a poor performance in maintaining economic stability，promoting growth（in a short and long term） and improving income distribution.

Fourthly，at present，Mexico cries out for propulsion of more efficient fiscal reform，so as to promote the reform of economic structure，accelerate the promotion of production efficiency and strengthen the fiscal governance，to cope with the challenge of the rising of mid-and-long term uncertainty of world economy.

Fifthly，the Mexican case with highly market-oriented and highly open economy has some implications for the fiscal reform of emerging economies and China，that is，in the contemporary open economy，a country's public fiscal governance ability is related to the overall situation of its economic and social development，in which the government should play a more active rather than the only role，and the use of scientific fiscal instruments is an important approach to enhance its fiscal governance ability.

Key Words：Mexico；fiscal policy；economic stability；economic growth；income distribution