摘要

摘要：本書測算了加總及全口徑分行業人民幣有效匯率，包含了可貿易品部門和不可貿易品部門在內的33個行業，采用增加值有效匯率的測算方法以更好地體現人民幣對外競爭力。研究發現，加總來看，人民幣匯率在經過增加值貿易調整之后的升值幅度比傳統有效匯率的升值幅度更高。分行業來看，不同于傳統理解，部分不可貿易品行業的有效匯率升值幅度同樣較高，其升值幅度甚至高于某些可貿易品行業，需要關注不可貿易品行業的對外競爭力變化及其理論和政策含義。在中國不斷融入全球價值鏈和進一步對外開放的進程中，重估后的基于增加值的有效匯率應當作為理解人民幣對外競爭力和面臨外部沖擊的重要工具。

本書建立了基于世界投入產出表數據的增加值核算模型和基于增加值的有效匯率模型，在模型的基礎上重估了加總的和全口徑分行業的基于增加值的人民幣有效匯率，并形成了人民幣增加值有效匯率數據庫，發布于中國社會科學院世界經濟與政治研究所異質性有效匯率數據庫頁面：http://www.iwep.org.cn/iwepheer/。

由加總的人民幣增加值有效匯率視角，本書有如下發現：第一，人民幣增加值有效匯率的樣本期內升值幅度高于傳統有效匯率，即傳統有效匯率可能高估人民幣對外競爭力；第二，這一差異來源主要是美、歐權重調升和東亞國家和地區權重調降，上述權重的變化對于理解競爭力變化和外部貶值沖擊影響十分重要；第三，首次在文獻中比較了傳統有效匯率和增加值有效匯率在進口競爭、出口直接競爭和出口第三方競爭權重上的差異，兩者存在顯著不同。

由分行業的人民幣增加值有效匯率視角，本書有如下發現：第一，從國際收支的服務貿易、境外附屬機構服務貿易和附著在可貿易品上的服務三個角度闡釋了測算包含服務業的全口徑分行業人民幣增加值有效匯率的必要性；第二，基于測算發現可貿易品行業和不可貿易品行業之間以及內部均存在異質性。這種差異性不僅僅存在于可貿易行業和不可貿易行業之間，在可貿易行業內部和不可貿易行業內部也存在；第三，基于全口徑分行業增加值有效匯率，可以直接得出包括產品流通、運輸在內的不可貿易品部門有效匯率升值將直接推高總體人民幣有效匯率水平的結論，這一發現拓展了“巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應”研究中分析可貿易品中不可貿易品作用的文獻。

在數據的運用方面，本書基于所測算的增加值數據對國際宏觀經濟政策的協調做一簡單拓展，以增加值而非傳統貿易重估了外國需求對本國的沖擊，繼而重新分析了在考慮增加值背景下蒙代爾-弗萊明模型所蘊含的國際宏觀經濟政策協調含義。

本書的研究有明確的政策含義。一方面，傳統有效匯率的測算方法在垂直分工的背景下，得出的權重是有偏誤的。因此，應當同時考慮重估后的增加值有效匯率，以分析對外競爭力變動和匯率沖擊變動。另一方面，隨著改革開放的進一步深化，中國將進一步地開放服務業，對外開放將更多地呈現“貿易 -投資-服務”三位一體的格局，因此，傳統僅專注于制造業的有效匯率測算是不足的。本書構建全口徑的增加值有效匯率將更科學、更全面地測算這些行業的外部競爭力，為相關決策提供參考。

關鍵詞：基于增加值的有效匯率；可貿易品；不可貿易品；全球價值鏈

Abstract: This book has computed aggregated and industrial level RMB effective exchange rates（EER）. It provides a comprehensive dataset for 33 industries covering tradable and non-tradable sectors and uses value-added method to construct EER to promote better understanding of China's external competitiveness. This book shows that RMB appreciates more after adjusting weights by global value chain from aggregated perspective. Opposite to the conventional wisdom, some non-tradable sectors also have high appreciation level. This provides new policy and theoretical insights into the competitiveness of non-tradable sectors. With a higher integration of global value chain and further opening-up, Chins should consider using value-added EER as important measurements of RMB external competitiveness and external shock.

This book has established value-added accounting model based on WIOT and value-added effective exchange rate model. Based on the two models, we have computed aggregated and industrial level RMB effective exchange rate （EER）. It provides a comprehensive dataset for 33 industries covering tradable and non-tradable sectors and uses value-added method to construct EER to promote better understanding of China's external competitiveness. We have established RMB GVC Effective Exchange Rate database and has updated the database on the IWEP HEER webpage: http: //www. iwep. org. cn/iwepheer/.

This book has three major findings from aggregated level data. Firstly, RMB appreciates more after adjusting weights by global value chain from aggregated perspective. The traditional effective exchange rate might overestimate the external competitiveness of RMB. Secondly, this difference mainly comes from the upward adjustment of EU and US weight and the downward adjustment of Asian countries weight. This change is important in understanding the change of external competitiveness and external depreciation shocks. Thirdly, we compare firstly in the literature that traditional EER and value-added EER display differently in import competitiveness, export direct competitiveness and export third market competitiveness.

This book has three major findings from industrial level data. Firstly, we explain the necessity to construct comprehensive industrial level EER through the channels of traditional service trade, FATS and services in goods. Secondly, there are heterogeneities between and among tradable and non-tradable sectors. Thirdly, based on the comprehensive EER, we can directly see how non-tradable sectors push up the aggregated exchange rate, adding new insights into the so called Balassa-Samuelson effect.

With regarding to the application of the data, this book makes a simple expansion to the coordination of international macroeconomic policies based on the value-added data. We re-evaluate the impact of foreign demand on the domestic economy with value-added data rather than traditional trade data, and then re-analyse the implication of the international policy coordination based on Mundell-Fleming model in the context of value-added.

The research in this book has clear policy implications. On the one hand, the traditional effective exchange rate measurement method is biased in the context of vertical division of labor. Therefore, the revaluated effective exchange rate of the added value should be considered when analyzing external competitiveness and exchange rate shocks. On the other hand, with the further deepening of reform and opening up, China will further open up the service industry, and move on to the so-called“trade-investment-service”trinity. Therefore, it is not enough to only look at manufacturing effective exchange rate. The book builds a comprehensive value-added effective exchange rate to measure the external competitiveness of these indus tries and provides reference for relevant decisions.

Key words: Value-Added Effective Exchange Rate, Tradable Goods, Non-Tradable Goods, Global Value Chain