摘要：當前全球能源格局正在發生顯著變化。一方面，美國頁巖氣革命成功以及加拿大油砂大量開采，使得全球非常規油氣迅猛發展，形成北美“非常規油氣版圖”與中東“常規油氣版圖”遙相呼應的世界化石能源供應新格局。但受世界經濟增長放緩、貿易摩擦、地緣政治沖突等因素影響，全球能源市場短期風險上升。2019年油氣整體消費增速放緩，全球煤炭產業進入深度調整期，OPEC和國際能源署更是多次下調全球原油需求增長預期。2020年年初全球暴發的新冠肺炎疫情進一步給國際能源市場帶來巨大沖擊。全球原油需求大幅下降，疊加沙特和俄羅斯石油價格戰，以及美國制裁伊朗的不斷升級，布倫特原油現貨價格在2020年4月1日跌至近20年來的最低。短期內油氣需求的大幅下降必將加劇產油國之間爭奪消費市場份額的矛盾和沖突。如果疫情能夠在2020年下半年得到有效控制，世界經濟和原油需求可能會得到部分修復，預計全球原油日需求量在2020年將會下降1000萬桶左右，在2021年將會強勁反彈，增長800萬桶左右，但比2019年低200萬桶左右，在2022年恢復常態化增長，將比2019年增長100萬桶左右，布倫特原油中樞價格在2020年將在40美元/桶左右震蕩，2021年可能反彈至50美元/桶左右。鑒于更多國家將天然氣作為傳統能源與清潔能源之間的過渡能源，預期未來1—3年，全球天然氣市場將繼續供給充足，管道天然氣和液化天然氣的貿易量將不斷擴大。而中國、印度等亞太地區大國將是全球油氣進口增長的主力軍。另一方面，氣候變化加速了全球能源供需結構的多元化調整，以高效、清潔、低碳、智能為主要特征的能源轉型進程持續推進。2010—2018年，全球太陽能光伏發電平準化度電成本（LCOE）大幅下降了近80%，陸上風力發電下降46%，海上風力發電下降44%。2019年光伏和風電成為許多國家新增電力裝機中最便宜的兩種發電形式?？稍偕茉措娏Τ杀鞠陆档内厔菘赡艹掷m到下一個十年。隨著風電成本的持續降低，預計未來五年全球風電市場將平穩擴大，到2040年，風力發電將和光伏發電一樣，在全球電力供給結構中占據更加重要的位置。

中國能源稟賦特點是“富煤、貧油、少氣”，這決定了煤炭作為中國能源生產與消費主要來源的地位短期內不會改變。2019年，中國能源政策著力增強能源有效供給，加快石油、天然氣、電力和新能源領域關鍵環節的市場化改革的落實。能源生產穩中趨緩，油氣增產、國內勘探開發取得重要進展以及中俄東線天然氣管道建設，從戰略層面提升了中國能源安全保障能力。能源消費結構進一步優化，盡管化石能源依然是供電的主要來源，但供電體系正向更加綠色、現代化、可持續能源體系逐漸轉變。煤炭消費占初級能源消費比例在2018年首次降至60%以下?？稍偕茉囱b機占比持續提高，2019年水電、核電、風電和太陽能發電占全部發電量的27.7%。但由于政策變化和市場環境等因素的影響，光伏裝機增速放緩。受全球跨境能源直接投資總體下降影響，2019年中國對外能源直接投資規模也大幅下降，對外能源直接投資目的地主要集中在亞洲、拉美和北美地區。2020年開局新冠肺炎疫情的快速蔓延給中國的交通運輸、居民消費和企業生產經營造成巨大沖擊，能源市場所受波及尤其明顯。隨著3月中下旬中國疫情的全面好轉以及復工復產速度的加快，預計2020年第2季度后中國油氣需求會有所回升，煤炭產量也將出現先抑后揚局面。未來幾年，提高煤炭能源的清潔使用率和增加對可再生能源等清潔能源的使用比例，將是中國能源轉型結構調整的主要方向。

第三部分分析了美國制裁伊朗對原油和經濟的影響。美國暗殺伊朗將領蘇萊曼尼事件曾引發了國際原油和金融市場震蕩。鑒于美伊軍事實力差距懸殊，未來雙方關系很可能走向局部小規模沖突，不會發展升級為直接戰爭，且沖突地點很可能發生在敘利亞、伊拉克，遠離原油生產和運輸密集的海灣地區。美國嚴厲的經濟制裁，顯著加大了伊朗的經濟和民生困難，導致伊朗政權和社會不穩定隱患明顯增多。雖然美國制裁伊朗將會對國際原油價格產生顯著影響，但這一影響是短期的和可控的，對于全球經濟和金融市場的影響預計較小。美伊沖突對中國的影響主要是原油價格變動和原油供應安全問題。若伊朗因美國經濟制裁陷入政局動蕩，中國的利益受損將較大，不僅原油進口成本增加，原油供應中斷風險上升，而且中國在伊朗的油氣權益資產將嚴重受損。中國應密切關注事態發展，適當增加原油戰略儲備，加快推進原油進口多元化進程，加強提升中國原油供應和運輸安全的能力建設。中國金融機構和企業需高度重視美國對伊朗追加制裁所引發的業務合規問題，避免再遭受美國制裁。

關鍵詞：能源展望；世界；中國；美國制裁伊朗

Abstract：At present，the global energy pattern is undergoing profound changes.On the one hand，the successful shale gas revolution in the United States and the large-scale oil production from oil sands deposits in Canada have led to the rapid developmentof global unconventional oil and gas，forming a new pattern of global fossil energy supply，where the “unconventional oil and gas territory”in North America echoes with the“conventional oil and gas territory”in theMiddleEast. However，the short-term risks of global energy market have increased due to the slowdown of global economic growth，trade frictions，geopolitical conflicts and other factors.In 2019，the overall consumption growth of natural gas slowed down，and the global coal industry entered a period of deep adjustment.The Organization of Oil Exporting Countries（OPEC）and the International Energy Agency（IEA）lowered the growth expectation for global crude oil demand for many times.The COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020 has exerted great impact on the international energy market.W ith the sharp decline of global crude oil demand，coupled with the oil pricewar between Saudi Arabia and Russia，and the escalating conflict between the U.S.and Iran，the spot price of Brent crude oil fell to its lowest level in recent 20 years on April 1，2020.In the short term，the sharp decline of oil and gas demand will aggravate the contradiction and conflict between oil producing countries in competing for the share of consumptionmarket.If the pandemic can be effectively controlled in the second half of 2020，the world economy and crude oil demand may recover to some extent.It is expected that the daily global crude oil demand will decrease by about 10 million barrels in 2020 and rebound strongly in 2021，with an increase of about 8 million barrels，which is still2million barrels lower than that in 2019.In 2022，itwill resume normal growth，increase by about1million barrels compared with that in 2019.The central price ofBrent crude oil will fluctuate around＄40/barrel in 2020 andmay rebound to around＄50/barrel in 2021.Asmore and more countries are using natural gas as the transitional energy between traditional energy and clean energy，it is expected that the global natural gasmarket will continue to have sufficient supply in the next 1-3 years，and the trade volume of pipeline natural gas （PNG）and liquefied natural gas（LNG）will constantly increase.China，India and other Asia Pacific countries will be the main contributors of global oil and gas import growth.On the other hand，climate changes have accelerated the diversified adjustment of global energy supply and demand structure，and the energy transformation process featured by high efficiency，cleanness，low carbon and intelligence has been continuously promoted.During 2010-2018，the global levelized cost of energy（LCOE）of solar photovoltaic power generation dropped by nearly 80%，that of onshore wind power generation decreased by 46%，and that of offshore wind power generation decreased by 44%.In 2019，photovoltaic and wind power generation became the two cost-effective forms of power generation inmany countries.The decreasing cost of renewable power generation is likely to continue into the next decade. With the continuous reduction ofwind power cost，it isexpected that the global wind power market will expand steadily in the next five years.By 2040，wind power will occupy a more important position in the global power supply structure just like photovoltaic power generation.

China's energy endowment is characterized by“rich in coal，poor in oil and gas”，which determines that coal，as the main source ofChina's energy production and consumption，will still take a prominent position in the short term.In 2019，China issued energy policies to vigorously enhance the effective supply of energy and accelerate the implementation ofmarket-oriented reforms in key processes of oil，natural gas，electricity and new energy fields.China has improved the capacity to guarantee energy security from the strategic level by realizing steady energy production，increasing oil and gas production，making significant progress in domestic prospecting and development，and constructingChina-RussiaEast-RouteNaturalGasPipeline. The energy consumption structure has been further optimized. A lthough fossil energy is still themain source of power supply，the power supply system is gradually becoming more green，modern and sustainable.The proportion of coal consumption in total primary energy consumption decreased to 60%for the first time in 2018.The proportion of installed renewable energy plants constantly increased，and by 2019，hydropower，nuclear power，wind power and solar power generation accounted for 27.7%of the total power generation.However，the installation of photovoltaic power generation system witnessed slower growth due to policy changes，market environment and other factors. The scale ofChina's direct investment in foreign energy has also declined significantly in 2019 due to the impact of the overall decline of global direct investment in cross-border energy. China's foreign direct investment in energy was mainly concentrated in Asia，Latin America and North America.At the beginning of2020，the rapid spread of the COVID-19 exerted huge impact on China's transportation，residents'consumption，the production and operation of enterprises，especially those in the energy market.Since the middle and late March，the pandemic situation in China has been brought under effective control，and business resumption and production have been accelerated.It is expected thatChina's oil and gas demand will rebound after the second quarter of 2020，and the coal production will be restrained firstand then increase.In the next few years，China's energy restructuring will focus on improving the clean utilization rate of coal energy and increasing the utilization rate of renewable energy and other clean energy.

The third part analyzes the U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on crude oil and economy.The U.S.assassination of Iran's top general Qasem Soleimani triggered shocks in international oil and financialmarkets.In view of the disparity inmilitary strength between the U.S.and Iran，the two sides are likely to have local small-scale conflicts in the future，which will not develop into a directwar，and the conflicts are likely to occur in Syria and Iraq，far away from the Gulf region where crude oil production and transportation are intensive.The severe economic sanctions imposed by the U.S.have posed significant difficulties to the economic development and people's life in Iran，resulting in an increase in the potential risks of political and social instability in Iran.TheU.S.-Iran conflictmay exert a significant impact on international crude oil prices in the future，but the impactmay be temporary and controllable，and its impact on global economy and financialmarkets is expected to be small.For China，the U.S.-Iran conflict may pose fluctuation in crude oil price and security problems of crude oil supply.If Iran falls into political turmoil due to severe economic sanctions imposed by theU.S.，China's interestswill be greatly undermined：The import costof crude oilwill increase，the risk of crude oil supply disruptionmay rise，and China's oil and gas equity assets in Iran will be seriously impaired.China should pay close attention to the development of the situation，appropriately increase the strategic reserves of crude oil，accelerate the process of diversified crude oil imports，and strengthen the capacity-building tomaintain the safety ofChina's crude oil supply and transportation.Chinese financial institutions and enterprises need to attach great importance to the business compliance issues caused by the additional sanctions imposed by the U.S.on Iran，and avoid further sanctions imposed by the U.S.

Key Words：Energy Outlook，World，China，US' Sanctions on Iran