“一帶一路”與澳門發展

Macau as a Service Platform for the Relations between China and the Portuguese Speaking Countries，“the Belt and Road” Initiative and the Greater Bay Area

José Luís de Sales Marques^[1]

This paper will focus on the role of Macau as a platform between China and the Portuguese-Speaking Countries（PSCs），how that role is transversal to the major national development projects such as“the Belt and Road initiative”and the construction of the Greater Bay Area；and，last but not least，how Macau should grab those opportunities and maximize its contribution to national development as well as the diversification of Macau's economy，towards sustainable development and the well-being of its people.

1 The Macau Forum and the relation between China and the PSCs

Macau enjoys a unique position in the relationship between China and the Portuguese-speaking countries.The use of the Portuguese language as one of the official languages of the region is，together with its historical connections，the pillar of the Forum for Economic Trade Cooperation between China and the PSC's，also known as Macau Forum.This Forum，initiated in 2003，is a multidimensional and multilateral platform bringing together China with 8 PSCs： Angola，Brazil，Cape-Verde，East Timor，Guinea-Bissau，Mozambique，Portugal and S?o Tomé and Príncipe.It works in similar manner to a multilateral organization with summits every 3 years and a triennial action plan approved by its representatives.A permanent secretariat is established in Macau with a Secretary General appointed by the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC and assisted by three assistant Secretary Generals appointed respectively by the Government of the PRC，the government of MSAR and the third one by the Portuguese Speaking Countries.There is also a council of Permanent Representatives residing in Macau comprising of representatives of each of the PSC.The Fund established in the context of the Macau Forum，recently moved its headquarters to Macau from Beijing，to be closer to the Forum's Secretariat.It is endowed with a capital of one billion USD and its objective is focus on cooperation with the PSC.

The Portuguese-speaking countries are enjoying signs of economic recovery or even strong economic growth in 2017.That has translated into strong growth of trade figures in the first quarter of 2018.During this period，trade between China and its partners of the PSC's reached the amount of USD 30.188 billion，a growth of 25.91 percent over the same period of the previous year.The total figure for 2017 stood at 117.588 billion USD，a figure that is comparable to 68% of total trade between China and Africa during the same period.

The partners of the PSC fit into very different economic sizes and levels of development.They range from developed economies such as Portugal and Brazil，to economies that are still at a very low level of development.However，whether big or small，developed or developing，they have strong potential due to natural resources，geographic location and specific advantages，and they all need investment to pull their potential to a new level.And they enjoy a very strong relationship with China，including a comprehensive strategic partnership with Portugal and Brazil and a strategic partnership with Angola.

China has substantial investments in the PSC's，namely in Brazil，Angola，Portugal and Mozambique.For instance，official data from the Brazilian government^[2] places the value of Chinese Investment in the country at 53.96 billion USD，between 2003 and 2018.Angola is also a very important recipient of Chinese investment in Africa.The Financial Times^[3] ，recently refers to 8.9 billion USD investment in that country's energy sector，citing research studies by Boston University.China is Mozambique's biggest infrastructure financier and builder，with investments around the 6 billion USD mark^[4].Portugal，on the other hand is one of the biggest recipients of Chinese FDI in Europe，at 7.97 billion USD^[5].In the other remaining PSC's，the volume of investment might not be as impressive but they are still relatively significant to their economies.

In a recent visit to Portugal，Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China said that both sides stand ready to become significant cooperation partners in the joint building of “the Belt and Road initiative”.^[6] There are obvious links between the PSCs and “the Belt and Road Initiative”，particularly regarding its “21^st Century Maritime Silk Road”，not least because there have been many expressions of interest in this regard not only from Chinese officials but also from the Portuguese side including the President of Portugal，Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and the Prime Minister，António Costa.In a recent article by Portuguese leading newspaper Expresso^[7] some commentators，including the author of this paper，and the Portuguese Minister for the Sea，Ana Vitorino，argued about the geo-economic and political significance of Portugal and some of the PSC's particularly in relation to their position on both sides of the Atlantic and possible extensions of current corridors and connectivity lines of the BRI.It could be said，that Portuguese is a very important language along those shores，because two of the main regional economic powers in the South Atlantic，Brazil and Angola are Lusophone countries，and Cape-Verde and Some Tomé e Príncipe are placed in well positioned lines of communication and navigation，and Portugal itself along with other PSC's are entitled to large extensions of Exclusive Economic Zones （EEZ） in the Atlantic Ocean.

2 The Portuguese Connection and the BRI

Portugal and the PSC's are also a gateway to Europe，South America and the African Continent and also have privileged access to the Spanish speaking world.On a recent visit to Spain，this author met with several academics and commentators that stressed the importance of Macau as also a privileged place for the relationship between China and the Spanish speaking world of several hundreds of millions of people across several continents.

The BRI is a comprehensive Chinese initiative of economic development and international cooperation，involving over 100 countries and organizations.It is originally comprised of building connectivity through massive investments in relating infrastructure along 6 overland economic corridors spreading from China into Europe；and the “21^st Century Maritime Silk Road”，linking China through the Indian Ocean to Europe.Other countries and regions，such as the PSC as mentioned，could be integrating the BRI in the near future.

The BRI is one of the cornerstone of China's development strategy and foreign diplomacy，a strategy that connects its domestic economic development agenda with its engagement，at various levels，with the world economy.The most familiar dimension of this initiative is its connectivity program，across six economic corridors，three different continents （Asia，Europe and Africa），over sixty countries，and several high-profile infrastructure projects.But，in its entirety，BRI is much more than the much-needed roads，railroads，ports and high-speed trains that China is helping to build，re-develop，expand，or administer in Pakistan，Central Asia，Greek，Hungary and elsewhere.It is a grand multi-state cooperative project，involving multilateral and bilateral relations，economy，culture，security and people-to-people dialogues.

To finance BRI related projects，China created its own Silk Road Fund （SRF），endowed with 40 thousand million USD.Moreover，the PRC initiated the process that lead to the founding of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank（AIIB），a multilateral financial institution based in Beijing and with a total membership of 84 members （latest 19/12/2017），of which 22 are non-regional members，from Europe，Africa，and Central America.The thematic priorities of the Bank are，according to its business plan，promoting green infrastructure and supporting countries to meet their development goals；prioritizing cross-border infrastructure，ranging from roads and rail，to ports，energy pipelines and telecoms across Central Asia and the maritime routes in the South East and South Asia，the Middle East，and beyond，devising innovative solutions that catalyse private capital，in partnership with other MDBs，governments，private financiers and other partners^[8].Some of those PSCs are already founding members of the bank including Brazil，Portugal and Angola.AIIB is endowed with around 100 thousand million USD.It was not created exclusively for the BRI and its geographical scope of activity is clearly the four corners of Asia；the Silk Road Fund，however，a Chinese state-owned fund，has a wider scope of geographical coverage，with Eurasia as a central focus，and providing equity financing，which AIIB does not.The Silk Road Fund also does not provide aid funds，since it works as a commercial venture.Jin Qi，Chair of the Silk Road Fund in Beijing，said in a recent interview （Euromoney，26/9/2017），the investments from Silk Road Fund follow commercial principles and international rules.

BRI，however，does not mobilize only outward Chinese investment.It is also the centrepiece of economic priority within the provinces and major cities of the Chinese mainland as well as the Special Administrative Regions.Hundreds of infrastructural projects as well as public and private investments in China's domestic economic environment are realized as pertaining to BRI.The two Special Administrative Regions have been given roles appropriate to their features.Hong Kong as a world level financial hub is actively promoting business opportunities along the six economic belts of the initiative，as well as being a prime market for the internationalization of the Chinese Yuan；on the other hand，Macau has centred its efforts towards the Portuguese-Speaking Countries.

3 Macau，the Greater Bay Area，“Belt and Road Initiative” and Sustainable Development

The goals defined in each of those major national undertakings and “The Five-Year Development Plan of the MSAR （2016-2020）”are thoroughly connected.The plan said that the implementation of the 13^th Five-Year Plan and development of the“Belt and Road initiative”，will leverage Macau's unique advantages to play a better role in establishing a trade and economic cooperation services Platform between China and the Portuguese-Speaking Countries and the Belt and Road Initiative^[9].Macau's contribution to the Greater Bay Area would be incorporated with the city's strategic roles as，respectively，a world tourism and leisure centre，and a commercial and trade cooperation platform between China and the Portuguese-Speaking Countries.

As is well known，the development of the Greater Bay Area （GBA） of Guangdong-Hong-Kong and Macau is aimed at turning this region into a highly competitive world region，a first-class bay area city cluster，by the year 2030.

The Framework Agreement on Deepening Guangdong-Hong-Kong-Macau Cooperation in the development of the Bay Area，signed in July 1^st of 2017 witnessed by President Xi Jinping，is a comprehensive document with dedicated chapters to the objective，goals and principles of the multi-party cooperation，binding the central authority of the NDRC，the People's Government of Guangdong and the Regional Governments of HK and Macau SARs.These four parties agree on improving the coordination mechanism and to convene annual consultation meetings to coordinate and resolve major problems and issues of cooperation arising from the GBA development process，among other joint efforts.In regard to the goals of cooperation they are tailored to each regions' characteristics and competitive advantages；as such，the goals set up for Macau are in conformity with previous documents of the Central Government，namely its 12^th and 13^th Five-Year Plan，as well as the cultural and historical background of the MSAR.Those goals are to：take forward its development as a world tourism and leisure centre；establish a trade and economic cooperation services platform between China and Portuguese-Speaking Countries；establish an exchange and cooperation base with Chinese culture as its mainstream and the co-existence of different cultures；And，fostered the appropriately diversified and sustainable development of the economy.

Figure 1 Macau Forum，BRI，GBA，and Macau 5 years Plan

Therefore，the role of Macau as a service Platform between China and the Portuguese-Speaking Countries，or the Macau Forum in its short form，fulfills the triple objective of serving the purposes of Macau's development，“the Belt and Road Initiative” and the development of the Greater Bay Area.

Since that agreement was signed，several steps have been taken in the different jurisdiction of the GBA to implement it，including in Macau.In his address to the Legislative Assembly on 18^th April 2018， the Chief Executive Mr. Fernando Chui Sai On underlined that the government was expediting construction of a new Guangdong-Macau boundary-crossing checkpoint and other major infrastructural projects as well as studying closely the facilities for transportation via the Hong-Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge.In the same token，there were initiatives under consideration that would allow Macau citizens of different ages to work and live in the Greater Bay Area.Some practical measures were also considered during the first plenary meeting of the leading group for the development of the Greater Bay Area，that took place in Beijing on 15^th August 2018.^[10]Those measures include supporting Macau as a platform of traditional Chinese medicine with modern technology；sharply reducing roaming charges for telecommunication services between Guangdong，Hong Kong and Macau；enabling Hong Kong and Macau residents to enjoy greater number of services related with employment and entrepreneurship，following the waiver of work permit requirements on the Mainland for those residents，earlier announced by the State Council.A new government agency was also set up to follow up on the Greater Bay Area and “the Belt and Road” implementation.

The principles of cooperation established in the GBA Agreement are dominated by a catchy phrase： to be led by the market and driven by the government！ It means that markets will determine the allocation of resources according to the rules of supply and demand；however，the government will not be a passive onlooker！ On the contrary，it will facilitate the flow and optimum distribution of the factors of production and essential elements of living within the region.In other words，the governments of these regions together with the NDRC will supply the hardware and software needed for the market to move forward towards the optimum distribution of production factors.These facilitations will have to face some challenges，namely in harmonizing cross border control mechanism，customs clearance，transportation networks，capital circulation as well as people-to-people connection and smooth circulation of human capital.In the meantime，public and private academic institutions and think tanks，are developing efforts to contribute to a clear strategy for Macau's involvement in the said initiative.

Macau's challenge is to be able to address the internal and external needs to fulfil the roles set up by those plans.It will require strong determination and efforts in terms of infrastructure development，educational prominence，cultural attractiveness and diversity，provision of human capital，economic diversification，entrepreneurship and innovation，pooling together public and private resources and know-how，mobilizing all sectors of the society and all walks of life.In regard to the Macau Forum the MSAR must be able to play a more demanding and technically challenging role in the relations between China and the Portuguese-Speaking countries；and to act effectively as facilitator for multi-cultural dialogue based on Chinese culture；while，in the process，continue along the path of economic diversification and building the foundations for sustainable development.

The Macau Forum and the special connection with the PSC's provides additional soft-power for the actions projected for the PSC's under the BRI to be understood by the majority of their respective societies；on the other hand，BRI and GBA provides the Macau Forum with a larger scope and particularly larger market for the PSC's；the Macau Forum finds new incentives to motivate and offer more content and services for its members.

In the meantime，systematic aspects of the Macau's economy and society at large requires restructuring，re-orientation and upgrading in order to be able to face with confidence the tremendous challenges of the present and future.Public opinion must get familiar with the idea that for Macau to be engaged in the aforementioned initiatives and reach successful results，some commitments，financial and otherwise，will need to be taken，by the government and the private sector as well.

With gross gaming revenue （GGR） totalling 33.2 billion USD for 2017^[11]，a 19.1% year-to-year increase over 2016，Macau's economy seams firmly set on the recovery track with GDP reaching over 50.5 billion USD，a 9.1% increase over the previous year，and per-capita GDP 77596 USD.

As a result of the adjustment processes as well as internal pro diversification economic policies，the contribution of gaming towards Gross Value Added（GVA） of Macau's economic structure fell from 63.10% in 2013 to 47.15% in 2016^[12]，registering some increase of the relative weight of other sectors，which are significant，namely： real estate [7.13% to 10.60%]，construction [2.86% to 5.33%]，commerce [5.28% to 5.30%]，financial activities [3.94% to 6.90%]，rentals and commercial services [3.32% to 4.12%] and hotels and restaurants [4.61% to 5.93%].Altogether，they contributed，in 2016，38.18% to GAV，against the 47.15% of the gaming sector，a modest but，nevertheless，significant improvement.Economic diversification is not，however，a walk at the waterfront.It is a high hill to climb，requiring cooperation between government and private sector，balanced policies and a long-term plan，since whatever measures are designed to fulfil those goals，it still has to maintain a stable development of the gaming sector and，ironically built upon its strengths as a market where there is a wide scope of products and services that are required for its daily operations.Therefore，the strategic question is how to link the sustainable development of Macau's economy，with diversification as a component of sustainability，with Macau's responsibilities in regard to its participation in the GBA and BRI，namely in regard to the role of enhancing its contribution to developing the commerce and service platform between China and the Portuguese Speaking Countries，in accordance with its own characteristics and competitive advantages.

In concluding，I would like to stress the need for Macau to develop further efforts in the following directions：

Improving efficiency in the Forum's operations.

Facilitating participation of private partners with 24/7 supports to SME's from China and the PSCs，extended towards doing business in the Greater Bay Area.

Participating in investment projects with sovereign fund （to be constituted） and invest in special financial cooperation，including financial leasing.

Building people-to-people connectivity through culture and tourism.

Building Portuguese language education and communication platforms in Macau，in areas such as tourism，law，professional know-how，specialized translation.

Promoting BRI and GBA to the Portuguese-Speaking Countries and attract investment，talents and knowledge from PSCs to GBA.

Implementing an efficient platform for multi-cultural dialogue.

Using Macau also as a way to connect China with Latin Cultures and the Spanish speaking world.

Consider the ability of Macau to work as a trilingual jurisdiction （Chinese，Portuguese，English） as a competitive advantage.^[13]

Envisaging the Macau legal systems and the use of Portuguese language as an excellent foundation in making Macau the center for arbitration between China，the Portuguese-Speaking Countries and the Spanish-Speaking Countries.

Preparing Macau for a more important role in the relationship between China and the European Union，through the Portuguese connection，in the unforeseen circumstance that Brexit impacts negatively on some of the advantages that Hong Kong are presently enjoying due to that connection.

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[1]José Luís de Sales Marques（麥健智），President of the Board of Directors of the Institute of European Studies of Macau。

[2]“Boletim de Investimentos Chineses no Brasil”，09/07/2018，http：//www.planejamento.gov. br/noticias/boletim-de-investimentos-chineses-no-brasil，accessed on 2018/08/05.

[3]“Africa Eats up Lion's Share of Chinese Lending”，https：//www.ft.com/content/668968e8-23b6-11e8-add1-0e8958b189ea，accessed on 2018/08/05.

[4] Macau Hub，“Investimento Chinês em Mo?ambique Aproxima-se de 6000 Milh?es de Dólares”，https：//macauhub.com.mo/pt/2017/03/17/chinese-investment-in-mozambique-is-close-to-us6-billion/；“China é o Maior Financiador e Construtor de Infraestruturas em Mo?ambique”，https：//macauhub.com.mo/pt/feature/pt-china-e-o-maior-financiador-e-construtor-de-infra-estruturas-em-mocambique/ ，both accessed on 2018/08/05.

[5]The Heritage Foundation，China Investment Tracker.

[6]“Wang Yi：Jointly Building the ‘Belt and Road’to Elevate China-Portugal Relations to New Stages”，Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China，https：//www.fmprc. gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1561269.shtml，accessed on 2018/8/4.

[7] Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues，Jaime Figueiredo，“Portugal na nova rota da seda da China”，26/5/2018.

[8]“AIIB 2017 Business Plan and Budegt”，https：//www.aiib.org.

[9]“The Five-Year Development Plan of the Macao Special Administrative Region（ 2016- 2020）”，https：//www.cccmtl.gov.mo/files/plano_quinquenal_en.pdf.

[10]“CE： Macao's Distinctive Strengths to Get Full Play in Great Bay Area”，https：//www.gov.mo/en/news/99997/.

[11]“Monthly Gross Revenue from Games of Fortune”，http：//www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/information/DadosEstat_mensal/2017/index.html.

[12] DSEC，“ Relatório de Análise ‘ Sistema de Indicadores Estatísticos para o Desenvolvimento da Diversifica??o Adequada da Economia de Macau-2016’”，http：//www.dsec.gov.mo/get Attachment/4a76d152-e8e5-4c02-b6b7-9b71a22e4a23/P_SIED_PUB_2016_Y.aspx，Accessed on 2018/01/06.

[13] Francisco J.Leandro，Steps of Greatness：The geopolitics of OBOR，University of Macau，June 2018，p.268.