中國產業結構變動對經濟增長的非線性影響機制

——基于面板平滑門限回歸模型的實證研究^[1]

鄧創 趙珂 楊婉芬^[2]

摘要：產業結構變動是經濟增長的內在需求和重要動力。本文以1993～2014年中國31個省（自治區、直轄市）的面板數據作為研究樣本，從產業結構合理化和產業結構高級化兩個角度考察中國產業結構的變動趨勢及其區域差異，并借助面板平滑門限回歸模型實證研究產業結構變動對經濟增長的非線性影響機制。實證結果表明，產業結構合理化和產業結構高級化對經濟增長的影響均存在顯著的門限效應，并分別呈現“U”形和倒“U”形兩種相反的非線性特征，產業結構高級化對經濟增長的“升級效應”可以有效彌補產業結構布局失衡帶來的“扭曲效應”。可見，將政策調節的力度控制在合理區間、確保政策措施和市場機制的協同并行，是實現經濟穩步增長和可持續發展的重要保障。

關鍵詞：產業結構 經濟增長 非線性影響 面板平滑門限回歸模型

中圖分類號：F224.0 文獻標識碼：A

The Nonlinear Influence of Industrial Structure on Economic Growth in China

——An Empirical Study Based on the PSTR Model

Deng Chuang　Zhao Ke　Yang Wanfen

Abstract：The change of industrial structure is the inherent demand and driving force for economic growth. This paper takes the panel data of 31 provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions） in China from 1993 to 2014 as the research sample，from the rationalization and optimization indexes investigates the change laws and regional differences of China's industrial structure. Furthermore，this paper empirically studies the nonlinear effect of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure on economic growth using panel smooth threshold regression model（PSTR）. The results show that，the influence of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure on economic growth exist a significant threshold effect and presents two opposite U-shaped nonlinear characteristic of U-shaped and inverted U-shaped. The upgrading effect of industrial structure to economic growth can effectively compensate for the“distortion effect”brought about by the imbalance of industrial structure layout. Therefore，controlling the intensity of policy adjustment in a reasonable range，and ensuring that policy measures and market mechanisms are coordinated and parallel，is an important guarantee for achieving economic growth.

Keywords：Industrial Structure　Economic Growth　Nonlinear Influence 　PSTR Model