量價轉(zhuǎn)換背景貨幣政策效應(yīng)時變性研究^[1]

張小宇 劉永富 王浩宇^[2]

摘要：為適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展“新常態(tài)”，貨幣當(dāng)局需要有序漸進(jìn)地推動貨幣政策調(diào)控工具平穩(wěn)轉(zhuǎn)型，而轉(zhuǎn)型的核心是從傳統(tǒng)的數(shù)量型調(diào)控工具轉(zhuǎn)向價格型調(diào)控工具。在量價轉(zhuǎn)換背景下，厘清二者對實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)的效應(yīng)具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文運(yùn)用非線性斷點(diǎn)回歸模型研究在不同區(qū)制內(nèi)數(shù)量型貨幣政策和價格型貨幣政策對實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，在2001年第一季度到2016年第四季度的研究樣本上存在三個變異時點(diǎn)并在不同區(qū)制內(nèi)二者對實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)的效應(yīng)存在時變性，這也充分表明貨幣調(diào)控工具的轉(zhuǎn)型并非一日之功，量價調(diào)控工具的綜合應(yīng)用將是未來較長一段時間調(diào)控的主旋律。

關(guān)鍵詞：量價轉(zhuǎn)換 數(shù)量型貨幣政策 價格型貨幣政策 時變性 實(shí)際產(chǎn)出

中圖分類號：F820 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼：A

A Study on the Time Varying of Effects of China's Monetary Policy in the Background of Monetary Instruments Conversion

Zhang Xiaoyu Liu Yongfu Wang Haoyu

Abstract：In order to adapt to the new normal in economic development，the monetary authorities must progressively promote the transformation of monetary policy control tools in an orderly manner，and the core of the transition is from the traditional quantitative control tools to price control tools. Under the background of quantity price transformation，it is of great practical significance to clarify the effect of them on the actual economy. In this paper，the nonlinear breakpoint regression model is used to study the effect of quantitative monetary policy and price-based monetary policy on real economic growth in different periods. The results show that there are three variations in the research samples from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2016 and the effect of quantitative and price-based monetary policies on the real economy is time-varying，which also fully shows that the combined application of quantitative and price-based control tools will be the main theme of economic regulation in the future.

Keywords：Quantity Price Transformation　Quantitative Monetary Policy 　Price-based Monetary Policy　Time-varying　Real Output