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第46章 Two Theories of Economic Progress(2)

We may take as further evidence the statistics of the savings of the working classes;it is impossible to get more than an approximate estimate of them,but they probably amount to about *130,000,000.To these we may add the savings actually invested in houses.In Birmingham there are 13,000 houses owned by artisans.All this is small compared with the whole capital of the country,which,in 1875,was estimated at *8,500,000,000 at least,with an annual increase of *235,000,000-this latter sum far exceeding the total savings of the working classes.The comparison will make us take a sober view of their improvement;yet the facts make it clear that the working classes can raise their position,though not in the same ratio as the middle classes.Mr Mulhall also estimates that there is less inequality between the two classes now than forty years ago.He calculates that the average wealth of a rich family has decreased from *28,820 to *25,803,or 11 per cent.;that of a middle-class family has decreased from *1439 to *1005,or 30 per cent.;while that of a working-class family has increased from *44 to *86,or nearly 100 per cent.But without pinning our faith to any particular estimate,we can see clearly enough that the facts disprove Ricardo's proposition that no improvement is possible;and there are not wanting some who think that the whole tendency of modern society is towards an increasing equality of condition.

Was Ricardo any more correct in saying that interest and profits (between which he never clearly distinguished)must fall?

As a matter of fact,for the last century and a half interest in England has been almost stationary,except during the great war.

In Walpole's time it was three per cent.;during the war it doubled,but after the peace it dropped to four per cent.,and has remained pretty steady at that rate ever since.Ricardo thought that the cost of the labourer's subsistence would necessarily increase,owing to the necessity of cultivating more land,and as he would thus require a greater share of the gross produce,less wealth would be left for the capitalist.He overlooked the fact that the rate of interest depends not merely on the cost of labour,but on the field of employment as well.As civilisation advances,new inventions and new enterprises create a fresh demand for capital:some *700,000,000 have been invested in English railways alone.No doubt,if the field for English capital were confined to England,the rate of interest might fall;but Ricardo forgot the possibility of capital emigrating on a large scale.Thus Ricardo's teaching on this point is deficient both in abstract theory and as tested by facts.What we really find to have taken place is,that though rent has risen,there is good reason to suppose that in the future it may fall;that interest has not fallen much;and that the standard of comfort and the rate of wages,both of artisans and labourers-of the former most decidedly,and to a certain extent also of the latter,has risen.

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