前言

作為緩解消費者流動性緊張的重要舉措之一，消費信貸主要以財富為中介來影響農戶消費。傳統研究也大多以效用最大化公理來探討消費信貸對農戶消費決策的影響，而忽略了借款者基于環境變化產生的心理預期活動對其消費決策的影響。事實上，農戶借款者在獲得信貸融資支持后會根據各種影響消費決策變量的期望值來調整其消費支出，也就是說，借款者會對金融財富的未來價值產生預期，從而采取適應財富變化的消費決策行為。雖然行為經濟學關注到了農戶心理活動對其消費決策的影響，然而卻并沒有關注到借款者會產生財富預期及其對農戶消費決策的影響。究其原因，學術界對農戶消費決策機制的探討主要基于理性人假設和效用最大化公理，而忽略了借款者會因經濟環境變化而產生復雜的心理活動，進而對其消費決策產生影響。

事實上，消費信貸不僅通過會計賬戶產生物質（貨幣）財富，還可以通過心理賬戶產生財富預期。對于農戶而言，其往往面臨著收入不穩定、流動性約束等復雜的消費環境，因此在金融活動中，借款者會根據經濟環境變化而對未來有無還款能力或者違約（履約）風險等不確定性經濟后果（Kahneman把這種不確定性后果被稱為“前景”）進行預期，同時會建立心理賬戶對不同前景下的金融財富價值進行重新估價（價值判斷），最終形成財富預期。因此，財富預期主要滿足農戶借款者的心理需求下金融財富價值的另一種表現形式，是在心理賬戶中對消費信貸進行價值判斷的結果。可以說，財富預期是財富內涵和外延的拓展，財富預期結果也是決策者對未來有無違約風險或還款能力的一種研判。心理賬戶作為監測、控制消費者行為的一種特定機制，會在心理上根據估價結果對消費進行預算調節，并設置要達到的消費目標。因此，借款者通過心理賬戶形成財富預期會影響農戶消費決策，故對消費函數的構建不應該將借款者財富預期這一內生變量做外生化處理，只有將財富預期納入行為決策函數才能對農戶行為決策過程做出最合乎實際的解釋。但消費信貸的財富預期是什么？財富預期如何產生及量化？財富預期影響農戶消費的作用機制是什么？消費信貸對農戶消費是否有財富預期效應？現有研究對這些問題并未給予明確的回答，而對這些問題的回答有利于更好釋放消費金融對消費的影響效應。

基于此，為深入剖析在金融活動過程中消費信貸的財富預期產生過程及財富預期對農戶消費決策的影響，本書清晰界定了消費信貸財富預期的內涵和外延，構建了財富預期的產生機制及量化方法，厘清了財富預期影響農戶消費決策的邏輯鏈條。據此，本書使用Probit等計量分析工具探討了消費信貸的財富預期影響農戶消費的總體效應，分別從靜態與動態的時間維度、生存型支出和改善型支出的結構維度來考察消費信貸的財富預期對農戶消費的影響。同時，考慮到我國區域及農村內部差異，本書進一步探討了消費信貸的財富預期對農戶消費影響效應的異質性，從東中西不同區域和高中低不同收入群體來分析消費信貸財富預期對農戶消費的影響。總之，本書基于理論分析框架提出研究假設，以CFPS數據為統計分析基礎。最后，本書的主要結論和創新點如下：

一、主要結論

（1）提出了消費信貸會產生財富預期的思想。農戶借款者在獲得融資支持后，會擔心未來是否違約的不確定性后果（前景），從而建立心理賬戶對不同前景下的金融財富價值進行重新估價，最終形成財富預期。總之，借款者會依據經濟環境變化而對金融財富進行估價從而產生財富預期。

（2）明確了消費信貸財富預期的內涵及量化方法。財富預期是心理賬戶對消費信貸進行估價的結果，主要滿足決策者心理需求，是財富內涵和外延的一種拓展。從財富預期創造過程看，財富預期規模的大小主要和參照點的選取以及沉沒成本大小有關。

（3）構建了消費信貸財富預期效應發揮的邏輯框架。財富預期主要通過參照點效應和沉沒成本效應來影響消費規模，通過對財富預期的認知屬性和情緒反應來影響消費內容選擇、財富認知或樂觀情緒時，農戶傾向于改善型支出；而通過對財富預期的認識屬性和情緒反應來影響債務認知或悲觀情緒時，農戶則傾向于生存型支出。

（4）消費信貸的財富預期對農戶消費有積極影響。消費信貸的財富預期對農戶消費決策產生了積極的影響效應，在靜態與動態、規模視角下，財富預期與農戶消費呈同方向變動；在結構視角下，財富預期對生存型支出的影響效應要高于改善型支出。

（5）財富預期對農戶消費的影響效應呈現異質性。財富預期對農戶消費的影響效應在不同區域上和不同主體上均表現出異質性：財富預期對東部地區的拉動效應要高于中西部地區；財富預期對高收入群體的促進效應要高于中低收入群體。

二、主要創新點

（1）從行為經濟學視角探討了消費信貸財富預期，豐富了財富的內涵與外延。從行為經濟學出發，本書通過分析發現借款者對金融活動未來不確定性后果存在明顯預期，進而會通過建立心理賬戶對不同前景下的金融財富價值進行重新判斷，最終形成財富預期。可以說，消費信貸產生財富預期的研究成果豐富了財富的內涵和外延，彌補了傳統消費信貸財富研究的不足。

（2）構建了財富預期影響消費決策的理論框架，奠定了財富預期效應的微觀基礎。本書通過捕捉到借款者對未來不確定性后果（前景）的預期，提出通過計算不同前景下金融財富價值，最終加總成財富預期的量化方法，厘清了財富預期影響農戶消費決策的邏輯鏈條，從概念界定—產生過程—量化方法—作用路徑建立財富預期效應分析的完整框架，從而為相關實證奠定微觀基礎。

（3）驗證了消費信貸對農戶消費財富預期效應的存在，從而彌補了傳統消費信貸財富效應研究的不足。本書將借款者對消費信貸的心理活動結果——財富預期作為內生變量納入農戶消費決策函數中，從總體效應和異質性來驗證消費信貸的財富預期對農戶消費影響效應的存在，得出穩健和可靠的結論，從而彌補了傳統消費信貸財富效應研究的不足。

涂先進
2024年3月

Preface

As one of the important measures to ease consumer liquidity tensions，con-sumer credit mainly uses wealth as an intermediary to affect farmers’ consumption． Traditional studies also use utility maximization axioms to discuss the impact of consumer credit on farmers’ consumption decisions，while ignoring borrowers． The impact of psychological anticipation activities based on environmental changes on their consumption decisions． In fact，after obtaining credit financing support，rural household borrowers will adjust their consumption expenditures according to the expectations of various variables that affect consumption decision-making，that is to say，borrowers will have expectations of the future value of financial wealth，so as to adopt consumption that adapts to changes in wealth decision-making behavior．Although behavioral economics focuses on the impact of farmers’ psychological activities on their consumption decisions，it does not pay attention to the borrowers’ wealth expectations and their impact on farmers’ consumption decisions． The reason for this is that the academic discussion of the farmers’ con-sumption decision-making mechanism is mainly based on the assumption of rational people and the utility maximization axiom，while ignoring the impact of borrowers’ complex psychological activities due to changes in the economic envi-ronment on their consumption decisions．

In fact，consumer credit not only generates material（currency）wealth through accounting accounts，but also generates wealth expectations through mental accounts． For farmers，they often face a complicated consumption environ-ment such as unstable income and liquidity constraints． Therefore，in financial activities，the borrower will have future repayment ability or default（perform-ance）risk according to changes in the economic environment． Uncertain economic consequences（Kahneman refers to such uncertain consequences as prospects）are expected． At the same time，mental accounts will be established torevaluate the value of financial wealth under different prospects（value judg-ment），and eventually form wealth expectations． Therefore，wealth expectation mainly meets the other needs of the financial wealth value under the psychological needs of rural household borrowers． It is the result of value judgment on consumer credit in the psychological account． We can say that wealth expectation is the expansion of wealth connotation and extension． The expected result also reflects a decision made by the decision maker on whether there is a future default risk or repayment ability． As a specific mechanism for monitoring and controlling con-sumer behavior，mental accounts psychologically adjust consumption according to the valuation results and set consumption targets to be achieved． Therefore，the borrower’ s formation of wealth expectations through mental accounts will affect the farmers’ consumption decisions． Therefore，the endogenous variable of the borrower’ s wealth expectations should not be exogenously processed for the con-struction of the consumption function． Only the wealth expectations can be incor-porated into the behavioral decision function make the most practical explanation for the decision-making process of farmers’ behavior． But what is the wealth ex-pectation of consumer credit？ How are wealth expectations generated and quanti-fied？ What is the mechanism by which wealth expectations affect farmers’ con-sumption？ Does consumer credit have a wealth expectation effect on rural house-hold consumption？ Existing research does not give clear answers to these ques-tions，and the answers to these questions help to better release the effect of con-sumer finance on consumption．

Based on this，the paper clearly defines the connotation and extension of consumer credit wealth expectation and constructs the mechanism and quantifica-tion of wealth expectationin order to deeply analyze the process of wealth expecta-tion of consumer credit and its impact on farmers’ consumption decisions during financial activities． The method clarifies the logical chain in which wealth expec-tations affect farmers’ consumption decisions． Accordingly，the thesis uses Probit and other quantitative analysis tools to explore the overall effect of consumer credit wealth expectations on farmers’ consumption，and examines the consumer credit wealth expectations from the static and dynamic time dimensions，the survival dimension and the structural dimension of improved spending． Impact on farmers’ consumption． At the same time，considering the regional and rural inter-nal differences in our country，the paper further explores the heterogeneity of the effect of consumer credit wealth expectations on farmers’ consumption，and ana-lyzes consumer credit wealth expectations for farmers’ consumption from different regions in east，middle，and west，and high，middle，and low income groups． Impact． In short，based on the theoretical analysis framework，the research hypothesis is proposed，and the CFPS data is used as the basis for statistical a-nalysis． The main conclusions and innovations of the final paper are as follows：

The main conclusion of the study：

First，it puts forward the realistic background of wealth expectations． After obtaining financial support，farmers borrowers will worry about the uncertain con-sequences（prospects）of default in the future，and thus establish mental accounts to revalue the value of financial wealth under different prospects，ulti-mately forming wealth expectations． In short，borrowers will evaluate financial wealth based on changes in the economic environment to generate wealth expecta-tions．

Second，it clarifies the connotation and quantitative methods of wealth ex-pectations． Wealth expectation is the result of valuing consumer credit in mental accounts，which mainly meets the psychological needs of decision makers and is an extension of wealth connotation and extension． From the perspective of the process of creating wealth expectations，the size of wealth expectations is mainly related to the selection of reference points and the size of sunk costs．

Third，the logical framework of the expected effect of wealth is constructed． Wealth expectation mainly affects consumption scale through reference point effect and sunk cost effect，and influences consumption content choice through cognitive attributes and emotional response to wealth expectation． When wealth perception or optimism，farmers tend to improve consumption，while when debt awareness or pessimism，they tend to survive expenditure．

Fourth，it examines the overall effect of wealth expectations on farmers’ con-sumption． The wealth expectation of consumer credit has a positive impact on farmers’ consumption decisions． From the perspective of static and dynamic and scale，wealth expectations and farmers’ consumption change in the same direction． From a structural perspective，the impact of wealth expectations on subsistence expenditure must be higher than improvement expenditure．

Fifth，he discovered the heterogeneity of the expected effect of wealth． The effect of wealth expectations on the consumption of rural households is heteroge-neous in different regions and in different subjects：the effect of wealth expecta-tions on the eastern region is higher than that of the central and western regions；the effect of wealth expectations on the high-income groups is higher than Low－and middle-income groups．

Research major innovations：

（1）Exploring consumer credit wealth expectations from the perspective of behavioral economics，enriching the connotation and extension of wealth． Starting frombehavioral economics，the paper finds that the borrower has obvious expecta-tions of the future uncertainty of financial activities，and then re-judges the value of financial wealth under different prospects by establishing a psychological account，and finally forms wealth expectations． It can be said that the research on the wealth expectation generated by consumer credit has enriched the connotation and extension of wealth and made up for the deficiencies of traditional consumer credit wealth research．

（2）Constructed a theoretical framework of wealth expectations affecting consumptiondecisions，and laid a micro foundation for the effect of wealth expec-tations． The paper captures the borrower’ s expectations of the future uncertainty consequences（prospects），and proposes a quantitative method for calculating the final value of financial wealth and the aggregate wealth expectation under different prospects． It clarifies the logical chain of wealth expectations affecting farmers’ consumption decisions．Concept definition-production process-quantification meth-od-function path establishes a complete analysis framework for the analysis of wealth expectation effect，thereby laying a micro foundation for relevant empirical evidence．

（3）The existence of the expected effect of consumer credit on the consump-tion wealth of rural households is verified，thereby making up for the lack of research on the wealth effect of traditional consumer credit． The paper incorporates the borrower’ s psychological activity outcomes of consumer credit and wealth expectations as endogenous variables into the farmers’ consumption decision function． From the overall effect and heterogeneity to verify the existence of consumer credit’ s wealth expectations on the impact of farmers’ consumption，we get astable and reliable conclusions，thus making up for the shortcomings of traditional consumer credit wealth effect research．