空間計量視角下的中國經(jīng)濟收斂狀態(tài)分析

王西貝 馬薇^[1]

摘要：當(dāng)前我國正處于經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型時期，各地經(jīng)濟發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)復(fù)雜，研究地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展收斂問題對促進地區(qū)持續(xù)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展具有重大戰(zhàn)略意義。本文基于空間計量視角考慮了我國經(jīng)濟過程變化中的收斂問題，經(jīng)過對全國31個省級面板2004～2016年的數(shù)據(jù)分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，全國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)顯著的空間相關(guān)性，通過構(gòu)建空間滯后模型發(fā)現(xiàn)人均GDP不存在σ收斂，且地區(qū)間不存在絕對β收斂，考慮相對收斂情況發(fā)現(xiàn)僅有東部、中部地區(qū)存在收斂趨勢，東部地區(qū)收斂速度緩慢，內(nèi)部出現(xiàn)分化，中部地區(qū)收斂趨勢顯著。本文探究性地使用空間杜賓模型對該問題進行研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)變量的空間影響將加速收斂趨勢。

關(guān)鍵詞：經(jīng)濟收斂 空間面板滯后模型 空間杜賓模型 空間權(quán)重矩陣

中圖分類號：F821.0 文獻標(biāo)識碼：A

The Analysis of Convergence of China’s Economy Based on Spatial Econometric Perspective

Wang Xibei Ma Wei

Abstract：At present，China’s economy is in the period of economic transformation，and the state of economic development in various regions tends to be more complex and changeable. The state of convergence of regional economic development has important strategic significance for the coordinated development of different regions. Based on the perspective of spatial，this paper discusses the convergence of economic process changes in China. Through the analysis of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016，the national economic development shows a significant spatial correlation. By constructing a spatial lag model，it is found that there has no σ convergence in China’s personal GDP. It is also founded that there is no absolute convergence of β between regions. Considering the relative convergence，only the eastern and central regions have convergence tendency. The eastern region has a slow convergence rate，it has a divergence trend，the central region convergence trend is significant. This paper explores the problem using the spatial Durbin model and finds that the spatial impact of the variables will accelerate the convergence trend.

Keywords：Economic Convergence Spatial Panel Lag Model Spatial Durbin Model Spatial Weight Matrix